Here’s what I don’t know about the upgrade to Win10 version 1909

Next Tuesday, the whole ball game changes — Microsoft’s releasing Win10 version 1909 and the latest official version of Win10 will change, from 1903 to 1909.

I’ve been looking at the “version upgrade that looks like a cumulative update” concept and I’m still stuck on some important details. At least, they’re important to me.

Those of you already running Win10 1903 will get a polite invitation to Download and install the Feature update to Windows 10, version 1909. So we’re promised, and that’s what I’ve seen in the beta builds. Cool.

Here’s what I don’t know. If you have a definitive answer to any of these questions — or even an educated guess — I’d sure like to hear about it.

Q1: Will the “Download and install now” offer on 1903 machines be subject to the same quality update deferral settings that control cumulative updates?

• In other words, in Win10 1903 Pro, if I Pause updates or Defer quality updates, will the “Download and install now” offer wait until the Pause or Defer has expired?
• In Win10 1903 Home, if I Pause updates, will “Download and install now” appear right away, or only after the Pause expires?

(I’m assuming that the Pro feature update deferral setting has no effect. Right?)

Q2: Will the “Download and install now” offer on 1809 Pro machines be subject to the  feature and quality update deferral settings?

• Here’s where things get sticky. It looks like Win10 1809 Pro users will also see the “Download and install now” message in the screenshot — presumably enabling you to move from 1809 to 1909 without going through 1903. That’s great. But will the “Download and install now” offer wait until the Quality update deferral has expired? Or will it show up right away?
• Will the Branch Readiness level or the feature update deferral setting have any effect on when and/or if the “Download and install now” offer appears?

Q3: Will Win10 1809 Home machines ever see the “Download and install now” offer? If so, will the offer appear even if I have my internet connection set to metered? Is there an entry in the wushowhide list that’ll block the “Download and install now” offer?

And the key question…

Q4: After Tuesday, will it be possible to move from Win10 1809 Home to Win10 1903 Home?

It isn’t at all clear to me that there’ll be a straightforward way to go from 1809 Home to 1903 Home after 1909 is released, unless you have a copy of 1903 squirreled away. Getting a clean, official copy of 1903 right now is easy. I have full step-by-step instructions in Computerworld. But after Tuesday, it’s going to get significantly more difficult.

Q5: All of the same questions, but for Win10 version 1803.

Remember that 1803 hits end-of-support on Tuesday, but in the normal course of events you should be good for security patches until December’s Patch Tuesday. So how does the “Download and install now” offer fit into the 1803 scheme of things?

By the way, if you want to make sure you don’t get 1909 until you’re good ‘n ready, the nostrums in my November 1 article in Computerworld should take you over the hump.

UPDATE: Just to be absolutely clear… MS has NOT committed to shipping 1909 next Tuesday. It just seems to be a general consensus of opinion.