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  • It’s just a flu

    Home Forums Outside the box COVID-19 It’s just a flu

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      • #2178041 Reply
        anonymous
        Guest

        The coronavirus is not worse than any seasonal flu, and its mortality rate is not even higher. 150,000+ die each year from seasonal flu and nobody screams. Do you, Woody?

      • #2178065 Reply
        anonymous
        Guest

        My understanding is that a flu normally kills .1% of infected,  whereas the coronavirus may kill 1%.  Still a low amount,  but higher than the typical flu.   Thoughts?

        1 user thanked author for this post.
      • #2178102 Reply
        wavy
        AskWoody Plus

        But about 10% older folk with a bit of a health problem, in answer to anom#2

        🍻

        Just because you don't know where you are going doesn't mean any road will get you there.
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      • #2178142 Reply
        Elly
        AskWoody MVP

        The coronavirus is not worse than any seasonal flu

        Actually, for many people, the coronavirus is milder than a seasonal flu. There are even infected people that are asymptomatic (show no symptoms). However, for older folks, and people with risk factors, the severity of symptoms, and the death rate jump up greatly.

        So… if you are an otherwise healthy person, please do what you can to avoid spreading and/or carrying the virus to others. Cover cough/sneezes, and wash your hands.

        Part of the problem that comes with any new diseases, is there is no way to determine the long term consequences. Public health departments are charged with protecting the health of all people, whether or not they have pre-existing conditions.

        If you do not live with, or visit, any high risk folks… while you are healthy… then, yes, the precautions implemented by various institutions may seem over-blown. You might be surprised at how many ‘high risk’ individuals you’d come across at work, or shopping, and while pursuing your chosen form of recreation. So, it would be nice to have your support in protecting those of us that are more vulnerable.

        Non-techy Win 10 Pro and Linux Mint experimenter

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        • #2188246 Reply
          Kirsty
          Da Boss

          I heard earlier that the average age of deaths in Italy to date is approx. 82.

          In checking that out, I found https://virusncov.com/, which bears out that information (under Live Updates heading). It shows the deaths are from 60+ age group.

          Their current live information shows:
          Total Cases: 110,077 (of which 5,977 – 14% – are now in severe condition)
          Active Cases: 43,967 (86% in mild condition)
          Closed Cases: 66,110 (94% cleared; 6% deaths)

          Naturally, there will be other cases that have not been recorded for various reasons. However, it is good to see that 56% of the cases reported so far are no longer unwell.

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      • #2178556 Reply
        anonymous
        Guest

        Everything I have read suggests it is more deadly than the flu, in that more people who are actually infected with it wind up dying. Granted, the exact numbers are unknown since it’s not clear how many infections go unnoticed, but the best estimates to cover for that still wind up with COVID-19 being more deadly than the flu.

        Of course, as more evidence develops, we may find that it is less deadly than the flu, but there are other factors. One, there is no immunization or treatment yet, so that will make it more deadly even if the virus itself is not more deadly than the influenza viruses. And the second is just that the uncertainty in the data means people are going to be more cautious. It could be bad, so that’s what we prepare for. Better safe than sorry.

        It’s actually been found in Japan that people being worried about COVID-19 exposure has been correlated with* fewer flu infections. They are protecting themselves more because COVID-19 is seen worse than the baddie we know, the various flus. As such, it may be better that we maintain a higher level of alertness on avoiding infection, at least, to some degree.

        So it seems that saying “it’s just a flu” is not only bad for the risks of COVID-19, but that this attitude leads to more people dying of the flu.

        * Yes, correlation is not causation, but other factors have not been found. It seems likely that the link is causative.

        • #2188456 Reply
          OscarCP
          AskWoody Plus

          It occurs to me that people that gets the flu will be weakened by it and be more like to come down with a serious case of COVID-19, the name of the illness caused by the new corona virus now known as SARS-CoV-2. (I finally got their two names straight.)

          Recently updated information on this illness and its virus here:

          https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html

          The complete clinical picture with regard to COVID-19 is not fully known. Reported illnesses have ranged from very mild (including some with no reported symptoms) to severe, including illness resulting in death. While information so far suggests that most COVID-19 illness is mild, a report out of China suggests serious illness occurs in 16% of cases. Older people and people of all ages with severe underlying health conditions — like heart disease, lung disease and diabetes, for example — seem to be at higher risk of developing serious COVID-19 illness.

          As to he flu itself, it is a truly scary thing even to read about.

          The online book linked here is called “The Story of Influenza”:

          https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK22148/

          So the flu is not “just the flu.”

          Windows 7 Professional, SP1, x64 Group W (ex B) & macOS + Linux (Mint)

      • #2188517 Reply
        anonymous
        Guest
        1. Comparing the flu with Covid 19 is comparing apples with oranges – or comparing risk probabilites that are fixed with risk probabilities that could numerically explode any time.
        2. Corona has a long rattail of follow-on problems: overloading health care system, eroding workforce sin the economy, earthquakes in the globalised production and supply chains, earthquakes on the stockmarkets.  One can imagine scenarios when these effects, locally fallign together with massive migraitonc risis, acculumalte for building a perfetc storm that chnages our civilization irreversibly and forever.
        3. Mortality rates must be seen in the light of whether comparing them to the counted case number or the to be assumed real number of infections. The difference in this regard, seen in Corona statistics from various countries, so far can be in the range of up to factor 25 or 30. Keep this on mind when you read a rate of 0.7% one day, and the next day somebody says 2.8% or whatever.
        4. Mortality rate is depending on age and health condition. the younger, the lower the risk, the more health issues, the higher the risk.
      • #2188574 Reply
        philrandal
        AskWoody Lounger

        https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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      • #2188581 Reply
        Linda2019
        AskWoody Plus

        This informative article by Scientific American really explains how the flu can kill.

        “The presence of the virus itself isn’t going to be what kills you. An infectious disease always has a complex interaction with its host.”

        The body’s immune system response to attack the virus may lead it to attack itself.  and in some cases people fall gravely ill due to a secondary infection.

        Doctors have explained to me that even diseases like rheumatoid arthritis can be caused by the body being exposed to a virus and the immune system reacts by attacking itself.

        https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-does-the-flu-actually-kill-people/?fbclid=IwAR2DtMVdBXwDxM00oZd4CZmy4pQJ8nxpA_CjAD1SoPliJq81JIMTTpGnjA0

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      • #2189003 Reply
        anonymous
        Guest
      • #2189267 Reply
        Alex5723
        AskWoody Plus

        The coronavirus is not worse than any seasonal flu

        The flu in the US kills 0.6% of infected people while the coronavirus kills 3.6% of infected people.

        Edit: for content. Woody has requested that politics be left out of these discussions.

        • #2189310 Reply
          Ascaris
          AskWoody_MVP

          The flu in the US kills 0.6% of infected people while the coronavirus kills 3.6% of infected people.

          In the rural areas of China, the mortality rate is 0.7%, and the thought is that after the initial shock of the discovery of the new disease wore off, the lesser cases of COVID-19 that were previously thought to be something else were being counted correctly for the first time. When it was first discovered, only the severe cases were being counted, as the minor cases were easy to pass off as the flu.

          Group "L" (KDE Neon User Edition 5.18.4).

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      • #2189293 Reply
        Kathy Stevens
        AskWoody Plus

        Good news!

        “For the first time in more than a month, live lobster from Nova Scotia has been flown to China, after fear of the coronavirus and travel restrictions caused market sales to plummet.”  Source  https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/first-shipment-lobster-china-sales-1.5492407

        The world will return to normal over time.

        Hang in there.

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      • #2189319 Reply
        OscarCP
        AskWoody Plus

        The fact that the Italian government has put their whole country, or some 60,000,000 people that, sooner or later, will get to vote in elections, all under quarantine, should give anyone pause, even if the Italian measure is not as draconian as the Chinese government’s earlier on in Wuhan and in Hubei province, where that city is located and this viral illness was first noticed.

        I am skeptical that the right numbers are already in, this early in the events. And of the existence of well-thought out government plans, detailed and ready to go, for dealing with this problem. I try to keep informed while asking, sotto voce, the same thing over and over: “You claim to have the facts right? You say that plans are being put in march that are not rushed improvisations? Convince me.

        And no, it’s not just the flu: 60,000,000 people don’t get put in quarantine for the flu, at least not in living memory.

        Windows 7 Professional, SP1, x64 Group W (ex B) & macOS + Linux (Mint)

        • #2189485 Reply
          Kirsty
          Da Boss

          They have effectively also locked in a number of overseas tourists in that lockdown, and a number of Italians out of the country are unable to return home at present…

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        • #2189780 Reply
          Ascaris
          AskWoody_MVP

          And no, it’s not just the flu: 60,000,000 people don’t get put in quarantine for the flu, at least not in living memory.

          The point that the anonymous poster was making was essentially, “Why are people losing their minds over this?  It’s no more serious than the flu,” and you’ve answered, “It’s not just the flu!  Look at how people (like those in Italy) are losing their minds over it!”

          People’s reaction to something is not a good barometer for how dangerous it is.  The things the news whips people into a frenzy over (like this) are often far less of a risk than more mundane things, but it’s the novel things that really make people freak out.  If we end up making policy or just personal decisions based on edge cases rather than on what’s actually likely to happen, we’re going to have a bad time.

          Group "L" (KDE Neon User Edition 5.18.4).

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      • #2189822 Reply
        geekdom
        AskWoody Plus

        World Health Organization has declared covid-19 a pandemic.

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      • #2189829 Reply
        Kathy Stevens
        AskWoody Plus

        Just a reminder.

        You probably got a flu shot early in the fall. But there is no “flu shot” for coronavirus. So, the entire population is at risk of contracting the illness. An a significantly high percentage of the population will contract the virus.

        Remember to wash your hands, avoid densely packed spaces, and be considerate of people over the age of 60 and those who are undergoing cancer treatment or have other conditions that give them a higher risk of secondary infections if infected with coronavirus.

        Out local, major university, hospital system, is telling us that for now the risk of contracting coronavirus in our area is low and that we should keep our scheduled medical appointments.

        At the same time, a major grocery store chain is limiting purchases to four items each of soap, household cleansers, and over the counter medicines due to an extraordinary demand. People simply do not know how to respond to a pandemic.

        No, the world is not coming to an end. But a significant proportion of the population will contract the virus and the spill-off effect on people at risk will be significant.

        • #2189836 Reply
          anonymous
          Guest

          Adding perspective to your good point. That flu vaccine we dutifully receive each year also does not protect from the virus that might develop this year. It is a cross your fingers, shot in the dark, better protection than doing nothing, inoculation. A best guess based on what transpired in the last six months.

          The flu seems to be seasonal, and we take advantage of that. The flu(s) we see in the northern hemisphere one year is the basis for vaccines developed for the southern hemisphere next year. Then whatever new strains are observed there are incorporated into vaccines for the the north later that year. Back and forth, we are always protecting ourselves from what our distant friends just had.

          It is a good method for what it does. The bad flu years are years we missed a new strain not yet recognized. Coincidentally, there is a parallel to definition updates to your computer’s protection: you can only prevent what has already been defined. New threats, require new vaccines or patches.

          • #2190001 Reply
            Paul T
            AskWoody MVP

            flu vaccine we dutifully receive each year also does not protect from the virus that might develop this year

            It does provide partial protection as the new strains develop from the old ones we have been vaccinated against. And the body’s defences are primed by exposure in previous years so the combination gives you some protection.

            COVID-19 is a completely new strain and because we have not developed immunity to related strains it makes it very infectious.

            cheers, Paul

            • #2190144 Reply
              anonymous
              Guest

              Please read further:

              …, better protection than doing nothing, inoculation. A best guess based on what transpired in the last six months.

              It is a good method for what it does. The bad flu years are years we missed a new strain not yet recognized.

              SARS-2 is not an influenza body. This is my best understanding of information read. CoViD-19 names the disease observed before the SARS-2 virus was adequately described as the responsible virus. Suggesting it is a new strain of the flu is does not help clarify the subject.

              Kathy used the comparison in a parallel way for illustration. I extended on that. If my post added to your confusion, I apologize. SARS-2 is not the flu. It does require an entirely new vaccine to be developed. This is why the projected lead time is 12-18 months rather than the usual few months for influenza. Fingers crossed, we may get lucky and figure it out sooner.

              • #2190154 Reply
                Kirsty
                Da Boss

                One of the anticipated benefits of increased flu vaccinations are expected to be the reduced severe health impacts from usual seasonal illnesses, both on healthcare systems, and on patients. This is to reduce additional pressures on hospital beds and staffing, as well as reduced immune levels of patients.

                Southern hemisphere countries are bracing for the impact of winter flu’s (they are currently in autumn/fall) when they start seeing higher demand from increased COVID-19 cases as the pandemic spreads further.

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      • #2189846 Reply
        OscarCP
        AskWoody Plus

        A question being debated is whether the COVID-19 virus (SARS-COV-2) will become less infectious or even inactive with the approach of summer and resume its aggressiveness late the next Autumn, just like the flu virus usually does. The answer, according to this article and as its title indicates, is that there are no firm answers to this question, as yet — and even for the flu the answers are more nuanced than “yes” or “no”:

        Coronavirus and Seasonality: What We Know and Don’t Know

        https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/coronavirus-and-seasonality-what-we-know-and-dont-know

        (If you see a pop-up message on a dark green background “about your privacy”, it is because you have an ad blocker on. Just click off the pop up and read the article.)

        Windows 7 Professional, SP1, x64 Group W (ex B) & macOS + Linux (Mint)

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      • #2190192 Reply
        anonymous
        Guest

        Is Covid-19, just the flu? If so then we are in for real trouble. According this article, we should be very glad this is not JUST the flu.

         

        https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/the-true-danger-of-coronavirus-covid-19-what-are-the-real-risks-of-infection-death-and-a-global-pandemic/

        Cases 127,863 Deaths 4718 Covid-19

        Cases 49,000,000 Deaths 52,000 Flu

        the Flu number are from

        https://www.everydayhealth.com/flu/flu-report-what-to-know-about-the-flu-season/

        • #2190213 Reply
          anonymous
          Guest

          Hi anonymous, I was anonymous from #post-2189836. And now that I see the conflict in names I’ll leave this topic alone. But I REALLY MUST BEG we stop using the word “just” and thereby create a connection that does not exist.

          This current pandemic, CoViD-19, caused by a virus now called SARS-2, is not the flu. There is much information from many sources. Suggest to begin with Wikipedia articles on influenza to review how it is identified, and continue to follow links from there.

          We can treat the similar symptoms in similar ways in order to comfort the experience of most patients who are not suffering a life threatening condition. But the cause, and the prevention, are entirely different from each of the four types of influenza and their many strains. Most people afflicted have, do, or will recover. Some don’t even realize they are ill, as they have not been inconvenienced by any symptoms. A tragic number will die from the complications. But like Win10 users with update problems, it is not a universal experience.

          Comparing the quality and quantities of apples and oranges can tell us a lot about our grocery store’s produce section. But they come from different trees and are not very similar after all. Be well, all.

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          • #2190313 Reply
            Ascaris
            AskWoody_MVP

            I interpreted the characterization as “just a flu” as being a metaphor, not intended to be taken literally.  Of course, the virus causing COVID-19 is not an influenza virus; it’s not the flu.  If it was, people would be freaking out over it a lot less, probably, even if the particular strain of influenza had the same characteristics.  The amount of fear and panic that humans demonstrate in response to a given threat isn’t a testament to how dangerous it is.  Italy shutting its borders is not a demonstration of how dangerous the virus is.  Corporations shutting down, conferences being cancelled, and people hoarding supplies are not indications of the severity of anything other than the media driven hype (which is very good for business, when it’s their kind of business we’re talking about).  It’s a testament to how fearful people have become, and fear of a given threat is only loosely correlated with the actual danger.

            I have no fear over this virus myself.  If I catch it, I will get over it, same as with the flu.  I’m more afraid of the other humans living around me behaving irrationally and causing threats that would not otherwise have existed.  That’s the bit that scares me.  The disease itself… not so much.

            Group "L" (KDE Neon User Edition 5.18.4).

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            • #2190540 Reply
              wavy
              AskWoody Plus

              I also do not fear for myself, but I do fear being a silent carrier and passing the virus to another. If you are a youngster and do not interact with any one who may interact with older or compromised folk than perhaps a cavalier attitude can be defended.

              🍻

              Just because you don't know where you are going doesn't mean any road will get you there.
        • #2190302 Reply
          b
          AskWoody Plus

          Cases 49,000,000 Deaths 52,000 Flu

          the Flu number are from

          https://www.everydayhealth.com/flu/flu-report-what-to-know-about-the-flu-season/

          “… as many as:”

          But according to their estimate source (CDC), also;

          “… as low as:

          Cases 34,000,000 Deaths 20,000 Flu”

          So risk of death is 1 in 1,700 for seasonal flu, but 1 in 27 for coronavirus.

          Windows 10 Pro Version 2004: Group ASAP (chump/pioneer)

          • #2210111 Reply
            anonymous
            Guest

            Really?

            COVID-19: Approximately 316,187 cases worldwide; 26,747 cases in the U.S. as of Mar. 22, 2020.*

            Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.

            World Population 7.8 billion

            COVID-19: Approximately 13,592 deaths reported worldwide; 340 deaths in the U.S., as of Mar. 22, 2020.*

            Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

            1 person in 8 has got the flu. 1 person in 24 got Covid-19.

            Flu is stated to start in oct. So oct to now is 31+30+31+31+29+23 or 124 days. Average is 8065 per day get the flu.

            Covid-19 started Dec 31. So 23+29+31+1 is 64 days .Average is 4940 per day.

            From https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-

            diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu

            Yes Covid19 does not have a Vaccine, yet. The Flu does which is high end 60% effect.

            Death number for the flu are 291,000. In theory, without the vaccine for the FLU possible over 1 Billion could die. It is believed the flu is very well studies and understood. Yet the Flu is constantly changing https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/change.htm

            One thing said is it is new and we fear the unknown. Yet since the FLU also is constantly changing, it is also new and yet we do not fear it. It would not take much to again have a 1918 out break of the FLU. It is just a matter of time. As for Antiviral treatments, Guess what, there are currently Flu resistance strains. I do not want to down play Covid-19. I just think we should use this as a wake up call and treat the FlU the same way.https://www.cdc.gov/flu/treatment/antiviralresistance.htm

      • #2190261 Reply
        anonymous
        Guest

        I was very disheartened by the description of the testing protocol in place for this. I thought they(media) said Labcorp, Quest and others were working with CDC/FDA to implement testing and also work w/ Dr.s and Hospitals to get on this when the test kits arrived. They GOVERNMENT did not learn anything from the HIV scare that had ONLY Federal and State LABS certified. Those who ignore history are destined to repeat it…but in this case the positive cases will definitely be more numerous….thankfully the death rate won’t be. Reportedly.

      • #2190299 Reply
        Kathy Stevens
        AskWoody Plus

        Coronavirus is much worse than any seasonal flu. Seasonal flu does not cause major corporations to shut down.

        We just received the following from one of our clients.  I have edited the content to remove client specific information.

        Based on recent developments, we strongly encourage employees across the U.S. and Canada to work from home. We currently anticipate this will be until March 31, however, we will continue to evaluate the situation and provide further updates on timing. In addition to employees, this also includes all contractors, hourly workers, and interns, as well as those who take care of us in our kitchens and buildings. We do not want anyone to encounter financial hardships as a result of this guidance, so all vendor hourly service providers will be compensated for their standard work hours.

        Our offices will remain accessible during this time so you can come in to gather your things, if needed. However, building services will be limited to core building engineers, building security, limited mail room services, and janitorial personnel. Our Data Center Engineers will also continue the critical function of maintaining our data centers. Additionally, Business Technology will leverage our Canadian, north-central, and southern Back Office Network and Operational Support teams to help us ensure we are able to effectively support Corporate computers (laptop/phone provisioning and support) and infrastructure operations (network, VPN, etc). We will take extra measures to ensure the safety and wellbeing of those who are still working in the office. And, we ask that you do not bring guests into the office if you do come in.

        To help assist those who may not be set up to work from home, Corporate employees are eligible for a one-time office equipment expense up to $250. (Please save your receipts!) This may be used to purchase office equipment required to help you work from home effectively (e.g. monitor, access point, desk chair, etc.). As a reminder, you also have access to standard peripherals and our noise canceling headphones program which are separate and in addition to this $250. Headsets may be expensed once only.

        Please take a moment to familiarize yourself with our technology information and resources, and the available equipment and services that can help you while working from home. If you need technical assistance, all technical support options can be found on our employee website. Here are a few additional work from home tips to help optimize your experience.

        We are all in uncharted territory here. Please remember a little compassion goes a long way. Many members of our family are impacted by this situation in different ways. Be sure to check-in with your colleagues and team regularly on a personal level, treat each other with compassion, and know that everyone is doing the best they can during this difficult time. Thank you for remaining flexible and resourceful as we work through the best way to navigate this situation, together.

        This is a rapidly-developing situation and we will keep you updated as more information becomes available. In the meantime, we are regularly updating our COVID-19: within our Corporate Safety Guidelines so please make it a routine practice to check there for the latest guidance.

        Your health and safety are our top priority. We will continue to communicate ways to optimize the work from home experience over the coming days.

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        • #2190314 Reply
          Ascaris
          AskWoody_MVP

          Coronavirus is much worse than any seasonal flu. Seasonal flu does not cause major corporations to shut down.

          Coronavirus did not shut down those major corporations.  Fear of coronavirus did that.

          Group "L" (KDE Neon User Edition 5.18.4).

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          • #2190543 Reply
            wavy
            AskWoody Plus

            Coronavirus did not shut down those major corporations. Fear of coronavirus did that.

            One person’s fear is another’s rational precaution.

            🍻

            Just because you don't know where you are going doesn't mean any road will get you there.
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            • #2208970 Reply
              Ascaris
              AskWoody_MVP

              One person’s fear is another’s rational precaution.

              Those are essentially the same thing.  For those who fear the disease, it’s a rational precaution, and for those who consider such measures to be a rational precaution, it would be natural and normal thing to be fearful of something so dangerous.  Being afraid is a natural response to perception of risk, and it’s not a rational precaution if there is no perception of risk.  Of course we fear things that can cause harm to us.  I am simply trying to illustrate that it’s people shutting things down for fear of the disease the virus causes, whether or not that fear is justified, because that moves the argument from “It’s not ‘just a flu’ that shuts down whole countries and major corporations” to “It’s not ‘just a flu’ that causes people to shut down whole countries and major corporations.” It’s a clearer and more accurate statement of the facts, and when that clarified statement is considered as an answer to the OP’s question, it ends up being a circular argument, restating the premise of the question as an answer to itself, which is logically invalid.

              Of course, this coronavirus is not a type of influenza virus, so the disease it causes is absolutely not “the flu,” but as I said, I interpreted what the OP wrote as a metaphor.  It’s not a flu variant itself, but it’s quite similar to the flu in how it spreads, the symptoms it causes, and which population groups die from it.  Influenza actually has two airborne routes of infection, while COVID has only one, but they’re both spread by sneezing or coughing.

              The swine flu of 1918 was “just a flu,” and that was the most deadly pandemic on record, so it’s a bit misleading to say that anything is “just” a flu, since the flu is a very dangerous disease for those who are vulnerable, and some strains are worse than others.  What I think OP was getting at was that we don’t freak out and shut down half the world over the flu, even though it is, like coronavirus, a dangerous disease that’s very contagious.  We’ve just gotten used to it killing 30 some odd thousand people in the US (and millions worldwide) each year, so we forget that it is actually a deadly disease, even though to most of us, it’s just a really unpleasant thing to have, not a risk of death.

              Most of us (I’d guess all of us, but I can’t say for sure) have had various strains of the flu, and even more of us have had a flu shot, and those do offer some protection against other strains of the flu.  We may still catch the other strains, but the disease won’t be as bad or last as long, as the body is able to come up with the right antibodies sooner than an individual whose immune system is wholly influenza naïve.  Since this disease is new to us, we’re all probably naïve to it, so it has the potential to punch above its weight in terms of virulence.

              Group "L" (KDE Neon User Edition 5.18.4).

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      • #2190315 Reply
        OscarCP
        AskWoody Plus

        The flu is not “just the flu”, as the article I put the link in my previous entry: #2188456  clearly shows the flu can be quite a scourge of humanity. Even when it is a normal flu season, many die of it.

        As to COVId-19: these are still rather early days, so I am inclined to think that not enough has been done, yet, to test people in sufficient numbers to get reasonably firm statistics with the breakdown in percentages of: asymptomatic cases, mild cold-like cases, and the obvious ones that end up in hospital beds and, or coffins. The latter two types are easier to count.

        Is fear closing houses, streets, city quarters, cities, counties, provinces, countries, as well as causing the imposition of other more or less stringent restrictions on life, freedom and the pursue of happiness? Probably. Is this fear justified? Well see.

        Windows 7 Professional, SP1, x64 Group W (ex B) & macOS + Linux (Mint)

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        • #2190324 Reply
          Ascaris
          AskWoody_MVP

          As to COVId-19: these are still rather early days, so I am inclined to think that not enough has been done, yet, to test people in sufficient numbers to get reasonably firm statistics with the breakdown in percentages of: asymptomatic cases, mild cold-like cases, and the obvious ones that end up in hospital beds and, or coffins. The latter two types are easier to count.

          Exactly.  Supposedly, in South Korea, where they are doing a significant amount of testing, the mortality rate has dropped to 0.6%.  For the flu, a disease we are intimately familiar with, we are better equipped to count the minor cases and establish a realistic mortality rate/profile.  For any novel disease, we’re starting off behind the curve… it’s always going to be the bad cases that get counted at first, artificially inflating the mortality rate.  This creates fear, and fear is money for the media… and that’s what causes things like people hoarding supplies and asking the vet to kill their dogs because they heard an unconfirmed rumor that dogs can carry the virus (and even if that were true, so can your human family members).

          I think of a person or family innocently traveling to Italy, then being told that no, they can’t go home… it doesn’t matter if your job or school expects you back on a certain date, or if your house-sitter will only be there till Thursday, or if you don’t have the money to stay in your hotel room indefinitely.

          That’s not to say the disease is harmless or that it should just be ignored, of course.  Thousands have died, and unfortunately thousands more will.  But if we let the media whip us into a frenzy and act based on fear, that’s not going to lead to a favorable outcome.

          Group "L" (KDE Neon User Edition 5.18.4).

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      • #2208548 Reply
        anonymous
        Guest

        There is one thing I simply do not understand. Why does COVID-19 get all the fear and hype while a likely more troublesome Problem like the flu is mostly discarded and ignored?

        Comparing the two Covid-19 First

        Approximately 207,518 cases worldwide; 7,324 cases in the U.S. as of Mar. 18, 2020.*

        Approximately 8,248 deaths reported worldwide; 115 deaths in the U.S., as of Mar. 18, 2020.*

        *This information comes from the Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases map developed by the Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering.

        Now for the Flu.

        Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.

        291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

        Yes we are just learning about the new virus on the block. BUT

        We take flu shots each year and know alot about the disease, and yet still thousands die from it each year. To me the FLU is much bigger problem and yet it is mostly ignored.

        Also as Covid-19 is a member of the SARS family this fact.

        Since 2004, there have not been any known cases of SARS reported anywhere in the world. The content in this website was developed for the 2003 SARS epidemic. But some guidelines are still being used. Any new SARS updates will be posted on this website.

        so the other coronavirus was a one time thing and then done. Yet the FLU come back year after year and even with vaccine it still kills thousands. It is not yet know how long the covid seaason will last. In theory the FLU season will end in May.

        Sites used in this post

        https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu

        https://www.cdc.gov/sars/index.html

        Yes do what they suggest to stop the Covid-19 spread. But why did we not do this sooner for the FLU?

      • #2208581 Reply
        Paul T
        AskWoody MVP

        Why does COVID-19 get all the fear and hype

        COVID-19 is much more contagious than seasonal flu.
        We have no immunity at all from COVID-19, we have for seasonal flu.
        Death rate is substantially higher for COVID-19, 0.03 % vs 0.001% (from your figures).
        If we get 1 billion infections that’s 30 million deaths.

        cheers, Paul

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        • #2210004 Reply
          anonymous
          Guest

          NOT TRUE

          March 22 Covid Cases 329,935  March 12 127,863 in the world

          Feb 27 Flu Cases about 29 Million March 5 32 Million in just the US

          Increase of Flu cases in one week 4 Million

          Increase of Covid cases in 10 days 202072

          See here https://www.contagionlive.com/news/us-flu-cases-reach-32-million-pediatric-hospitalization-rates-hit-record-high

          and here for flu numbers https://www.contagionlive.com/news/us-flu-cases-reach-29-million-have-we-hit-peak-season

          • #2210036 Reply
            OscarCP
            AskWoody Plus

            Worth remarking about COVID-19 are its rate of contagion and its fatality rate, not the number of cases already identified in the course of less than three months, which are bound to miscount those asymptomatic, those too early to show signs of the disease, and those already ill but, because of little or no medical insurance, at least in the USA, prefer to stay at home and ride the illness without seeing a doctor, or continue to go to work (and to infect coworkers) so they do not get fired for absenteeism.

            On the other hand, the flu has been around since last year, in the autumn, while COVID-19 is just getting started, and yet the number of cases is going up frighteningly fast. Among populations that, unlike influenza, have not acquired immunity from previous bouts of the same illness; for which there are no vaccines, or even an established treatment, with many drugs being trialed at the moment, but none consider proven to be effective, yet.

            The contagion rate estimated for COVID-19 is 2.8%; for the flu is 1.3%. The fatality rate of COVID-19 is estimated around 1%, that of flu around 0.1% :

            https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-05/how-bad-is-the-coronavirus-let-s-compare-with-sars-ebola-flu

            These are estimates, particularly for the new illness, because there has been no time to build reliable, comprehensive and thoroughly checked statistics out of the data being reported on asymptomatic, minor cases, serious cases, deaths, all these broken up by sex, age group, etc.

            What this means is that the world is facing a serious menace of which we are beginning to measure its magnitude and, until quite recently many, including government authorities responsible for public safety and health, were dismissing as not being such a big deal but more “just like the flu”. Well, definitely not like the flu. And it is already known to have mutated into a different strain of virus, so now there are two kinds of virus out there causing, perhaps, two different forms of the same disease, or even two different diseases. Still with no vaccine proven safe to use with people at large and, particularly, those understood to be at greater risk.

            Back in the Sixteen Century, millions of inhabitants of the Americas had no previous experience, and so no acquired immunity enough too allow for a reasonable survival rate against the common cold or the black pox. Those were gifted to them by the European explorers and colonizers. The result was millions of deaths. These days we have better ways to deal with new illnesses, thanks to the advance in the medical sciences, but that does not mean the risks are bound to be acceptably low.

            Windows 7 Professional, SP1, x64 Group W (ex B) & macOS + Linux (Mint)

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          • #2210040 Reply
            Elly
            AskWoody MVP

            Each of @Paul-T‘s statements are true, according to experts. Your data is also true. Both are true… so I’m missing the actual point that you are making by declaring his post untrue.

            In places where COVID-19 community spread has become common, the hospitals are quickly overwhelmed by the numbers of people who are seriously ill, and requiring respiratory support. These same hospitals were not overwhelmed by flu patients, despite the larger numbers of flu sufferers within the community.

            R0 (pronounced R nought) refers to the average number of people that one sick person goes on to infect, among a group that has no immunity to the virus. It is a measurement of how contagious a disease is. You used a figure that the number of flu cases rose by 4 million in one week. The flu has an RO of 1.3, but COVID-19 has one of 2.2. That means that if there were 1 million flu cases, they would spread to infect 1.3 million people. 1 million COVID-19 cases would spread to 2.2 million people. Of one million flu cases, there would be about 10,000 deaths. COVID-19 has a mortality rate of 3.4% but given the lack of testing, experts estimate that it is really 1%. Taking the lower number, out of 1 million COVID-19 cases, there would be 100,000 deaths, or 10 times the amount from the flu.

            So while it is true that the flu affects a far larger number of people in the last 6 months, it is also at the end of its annual northern ‘season’. It is unknown whether COVID-19 will become seasonal, but it has been shown to quickly move from a relatively small population and geographical area, to cases across the globe. The higher rate of spread, and the higher percentage of deaths, make it more virulent than the flu.

            LiveScience has updated their article How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu? with the most current data.

            Non-techy Win 10 Pro and Linux Mint experimenter

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            • #2210057 Reply
              OscarCP
              AskWoody Plus

              Elly, I am not entirely sure who is the “you” that you are referring to. Just in case: I was answering to “anonymous ( #2210004 )”, not to Paul T, with whom I definitely agree, as I think and hope my comment might show. Perhaps I might have prefaced it making it clear that I was answering to “anonymous” when I posted the comment, which I did because there were no answers posted here yet to “anonymous” one and I thought that those assertions had to be answered clearly and with the facts, as far as these are known.

              Windows 7 Professional, SP1, x64 Group W (ex B) & macOS + Linux (Mint)

              • #2210059 Reply
                Elly
                AskWoody MVP

                I had hit reply on

                NOT TRUE

                March 22 Covid Cases 329,935 March 12 127,863 in the world

                Feb 27 Flu Cases about 29 Million March 5 32 Million in just the US

                Increase of Flu cases in one week 4 Million

                Increase of Covid cases in 10 days 202072

                Apparently we (you, @OscarCP and I) had the same idea about that particular reply… just approached it slightly differently. 🙂

                Non-techy Win 10 Pro and Linux Mint experimenter

                1 user thanked author for this post.
      • #2208651 Reply
        ScotchJohn
        AskWoody Plus

        What scares me and most of our generation, and is keeping my wife and me (early 70s) confined to quarters, is the exposure to being infected by asymptomatic carriers.

        So, no, it’s not just a flu.

        Dell E5570 Latitude, Intel Core i5 6440@2.60 GHz, 8.00 GB - Win 10 Pro

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      • #2208676 Reply
        anonymous
        Guest

        The media and government have done a poor job disseminating the reasons why all the precautions are being put in place. Is the coverage hyped? Are the dangers that bad? The answer is not an easy yes or no and can be very nuanced. The answer can come down to economics and what is a life worth.

        The US had 4,862 acute care hospitals and 94,837 ICU beds with a 68% occupancy rate (2015 American Hospital Association annual survey) The flu is a known factor and our medical system has evolved to handle the associated number of hospitalizations associated with that disease. So, as a rough rule the US has 100,000 ICU beds with a 30,000 bed surge capacity. So that is the problem we could face and why most governments are trying to keep the infection curve as flat as possible. An easy comparison; suppose, 10% of the US is infected (same as the flu rate (from the CDC)) and we had a 1% hospital admission rate, with 25% of those needing to be in ICU, that equates to 82,500 people (330,000,000 population estimate) That equals to  more than 50,000 people above the available bed capacity. The other factor would be the number of health care workers infected and unable to work. Thus, our medical system would be overwhelmed and more would die because of that. Now, for all the young folks, your leading cause of death is accidents. If you get hurt, your chance of dying increases because of lack of available care. So this really does affect everyone. If this does become seasonal, then the medical system will have to expand. That will not be relatively quick, nor will it be cheap. This then goes into increased health spending, your health insure increasing, etc.

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      • #2208705 Reply
        b
        AskWoody Plus

        I think of a person or family innocently traveling to Italy, then being told that no, they can’t go home… it doesn’t matter if your job or school expects you back on a certain date, or if your house-sitter will only be there till Thursday, or if you don’t have the money to stay in your hotel room indefinitely.

        Has that happened to anyone travelling from/to any country?

        Windows 10 Pro Version 2004: Group ASAP (chump/pioneer)

        • #2208715 Reply
          doriel
          AskWoody Lounger

          Borders are being closed, few are left open. You can always go to your home country, but then you must go quarantine at home. In czechia, you wil be fined approx 150 000 USD for not staying in quarantine. We live next to borders and some people from Poland cant come to work, because borders are closed. Only supplies (groceries, toilet paper, …) are left through borders.
          But we appreciate that, we understand, that this will stop COVID from spreading.

          Dell Latitude E6530, Intel Core i5 @ 2.6 GHz, 4GB RAM, WX 1809 Enterprise

          HAL3000, AMD Athlon 200GE @ 3,4 GHz, 8GB RAM, Fedora 29

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      • #2208707 Reply
        doriel
        AskWoody Lounger

        I am from Europe – media are causing most dammage – people are scared, people are stressed. I know its pretty big problem, but why not to tell people facts, instead of scaring them with stories how everything is going bad?
        If people are going to believe its bad, it will be bad.
        We live in invisible energetic field influenced (beside of other things) by feelings and thoughts. That needs to be known.

        Dell Latitude E6530, Intel Core i5 @ 2.6 GHz, 4GB RAM, WX 1809 Enterprise

        HAL3000, AMD Athlon 200GE @ 3,4 GHz, 8GB RAM, Fedora 29

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      • #2208721 Reply
        Kathy Stevens
        AskWoody Plus

        I saw the news today, OH BOY – half-drunk college students, and lots of them, standing shirtless at some spring-break destinations like Daytona Beach and Miami while explaining that they weren’t the least bit worried about the Coronavirus.

        At the same time, Asian nations are  facing second waves of “imported cases” of Coronavirus  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51955931  .  South Korea, China and Singapore are among the countries facing second waves, fueled by people importing it from outside.

        The facts are that here in the Northeastern United States the health system is anticipating an unsustainable surge of emergency room demand. Hospitals are  facing  shortages of beds, respirators, and protective clothing for medical staff.

        Doctors are canceling scheduled visits, examining people via Skype, and, were essential, making home visits. Yes, that is right – home visits.

        The only way to preserve our health system is to flatten the peak of emergency room demand by slowing the rate of infection of vulnerable people.

        Edited. Please follow Lounge rules regarding bold formatting.

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        • #2210237 Reply
          Charlie
          AskWoody Plus

          I’ve heard on radio and TV news originating from the Baltimore, MD area, that an 18 year old, a 5 year old, and a 10 month old have tested positive for Covid-19.  I’ve also seen them show teenagers (on TV news) out playing close contact sports, totally unconcerned about getting either the Flu or Covid-19.  Young people are not immune to Covid-19, and even if they don’t get symptoms right away, they can be carriers and infect their families and friends.

          Win 7 Still Alive, x64, Intel i3-2120 3.3GHz, Linux Mint 19.1

      • #2210061 Reply
        DriftyDonN
        AskWoody Plus

        Flatten the peak? It seems to me that the powers that be are flattening the peak by adjusting the number of tests performed. Possibly playing fast and loose w/ the stats – ie duplicate tests included in ‘total’ number done, different types of  tests- virus load or for Antibody?-Ab is by far the most reliable test. Serology tests (ELISA screening) can be done by the thousands each day using robotics (this technology has been in use since the 1980’s-) why not now? Why not get some uniformity of protocols agreed upon and followed? Different tests cannot be lumped together and then added to the peak. A lot of confusing information is being disseminated. Do we believe the info coming from China re:Wuhan stats? Why would we? Perhaps I have just not done enough research on these ?’s.

        Color me skeptical BUT we do wash our hands and haven’t been out of the house in 2 weeks…and dont plan on going for ……?

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        • #2210069 Reply
          OscarCP
          AskWoody Plus

          DriftyDonN: Now, according to the sum of the populations of those living in states that, same as New York, California and Washington, have already imposed strict limitations on the outings and gatherings of people, more than 100,000,000, or roughly one of every three people living in the USA, are subject to such restrictions.

          I do believe that, among those many, there are quite a few people, those living in apartments and without the benefit of large backyards, for example, that need to be able to leave home and go for walks in order to get some exercise. Otherwise, on top of those to be caused directly y COVID-19, there would be serious health problems caused by prolonged  enforced physical inactivity, as well as psychological ones. This, I believe, is particularly important for the old people that are sufficiently mobile to benefit from such walks. And this is not an issue limited to the USA.

          The answer, however, must come from governments setting both thoughtful and imaginative guidelines, as well as properly enforcing them, to provide a legal framework allowing for these outings to take place in ways that pose a minimum risk to both those going out for a stroll as well as to their neighbors and to others encountered along the way. Now the question, as with many of the issues posed by COVID-19, is whether there is a way to deal with this one as well, because there is also a will?

          Windows 7 Professional, SP1, x64 Group W (ex B) & macOS + Linux (Mint)

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      • #2210901 Reply
        anonymous
        Guest

        Current Flu Stats from https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/fluportaldashboard.html

        Only Usa Typee A (h3) 1691, A(h1n1)pdm09 20427, A(no sub type) 781, B 3904, B(Victoria) 13916, B(Yamagata)  220 or 40939 Official Flu Cases and with a 7.1% Mortality rate means 2907 people have officially Died from the Flu this season as of March 19. As of March 24 Covid claimed 869. And the Flu is widespread and increasing. As well the number of Flu cases maybe be more like 231,654. The Vaccine is only 54% effective against Type B, Type A(n1h1) 63% and a mere 33% against A(h2n2). Getting vaccinated does not mean that you will not get or Die from the flu.

        Yet we ignore this and the Flu keeps changing. How long before the Flu Causes PANIC because we ignore it and then it starts to kill 1 billion people each and every year?!

        By the way you can have two different Virus at the same time. Be glad flu season has only got two months to go. If you got both COVID and the Flu, there a good chance that healthly or not, you might  be going to the hosiptal!

        https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#ILIActivityMap

        https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm

        https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

         

        https://www.khou.com/article/news/verify/verify-you-can-still-get-covid19-if-you-have-the-flu-everyone-needs-to-take-the-same-precautions/285-2144215f-ab44-47f3-9141-659af1024a6c

      • #2211008 Reply
        Paul T
        AskWoody MVP

        Yet we ignore this and the Flu keeps changing

        We don’t ignore it, we have new flu vaccines every year.
        More importantly, most cases of flu don’t require hospitalization with a ventilator, but a large number if COVID 19 cases do and that will overwhelm our hospital services unless we can limit the spread. And the death rate is much higher.

        cheers, Paul

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      • #2211083 Reply
        anonymous
        Guest

        Well! The health care system cannot hospitalize all flu patients, even if required; and if the number of new of COVID-19 cases start to overwhelm the health care system, hospitals simply shut the doors.

        And, don’t talk about mortality rates before the war is over if you want to be taken seriously.

      • #2211129 Reply
        DriftyDonN
        AskWoody Plus

        I would like to know not only how many tested positive in the last 24 hrs but also HOW MANY were tested? Then we can get a clearer picture of what these numbers they give us REALLY mean.

        DriftyDonN

        • #2211351 Reply
          Paul T
          AskWoody MVP

          We will have to wait a while for “what these number really mean”. We are fighting the still escalating number of infections and collecting data. I don’t think it will be properly analyzed for at least six months, simply because we won’t know where we are in the control of the virus for that long and we need that sort of information to correctly interpret the data.

          cheers, Paul

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          • #2211503 Reply
            DriftyDonN
            AskWoody Plus

            You are right Paul.  In a few months or more, there will be enough data to accurately report conclusions to date.

            My point is daily incomplete reports are misleading at best and may contribute to the anxiety that is rife today.

            DriftyDonN

            Someone was asking for reliable sources. CDC Morbidity and Mortality report comes out weekly. More reliable than cable news shows. (I know, if you believe the gov’t.) 😉

            • This reply was modified 1 week ago by DriftyDonN. Reason: clarification, addendum
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      • #2211545 Reply
        DriftyDonN
        AskWoody Plus

        Fake news said nsaids were indicated in most deaths by covid-19

        We know that viral claim that Ibuprofen is linked to the majority of deaths is FALSE.

        But unfortunately, the question of whether it makes symptoms worse is still unknown. The FDA, WHO, and NIAID are all investigating this right now.

        While individuals wait for a definitive answer, the WHO and other agencies suggest calling your doctor to see which medication might be best for you.

         

        • This reply was modified 1 week ago by DriftyDonN.
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        • #2211557 Reply
          Kirsty
          Da Boss

          The claim about Ibuprofen was one I first heard about 12hrs ago, in a BBC documentary program. It stated that there was “some evidence” and that you might like to take paracetamol instead if that was available, while adding that this was a precaution, just in case.

          The WHO have reportedly updated their statement on it:

          WHO has since released its updated statement following “a rapid review of the literature” and finding there is no published scientific evidence that Ibuprofen worsens the virus, CNN reported.

          An article in the BMJ, published about 10 days ago, also discusses concerns:

          Scientists and senior doctors have backed claims by France’s health minister that people showing symptoms of covid-19 should use paracetamol (acetaminophen) rather than ibuprofen, a drug they said might exacerbate the condition.

          “For covid-19, research is needed into the effects of specific NSAIDs among people with different underlying health conditions. In the meantime, for treating symptoms such as fever and sore throat, it seems sensible to stick to paracetamol as first choice.”

          Even Snopes has it as “unproven”. To label it as “fake news” is not helpful, and somewhat disingenuous. Calling your GP is sound advice, or the local “health line” (many countries seem to have dedicated call centers for information on Covid-19, however getting through on the phone has become a little bogged down by unprecendented demand).

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      • #2212313 Reply
        rc primak
        AskWoody_MVP

        In the US the recommendation is to use acetaminophen (Tylenol) instead of ibuprofen (Advil). That is recommended as just a precaution. Yet, as soon as that news hit, all the pharmacy shelves and online sources got swept clean.

        “We have nothing to fear but fear itself.” — Franklin Delano Roosevelt, addressing the Nation about the Great Depression

        We can argue about actual fractions of percentages in the death rate of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) after we get the needed 30,000 – 40,000 ventilators and millions of pieces of PPE to New York City’s hospitals. Otherwise we will see a local situation echoing or exceeding northern Italy in about ten more days. By following Shelter in Place and Social Distancing rules this can become just a fear, and not the reality.

        We can in most places still go for a walk or ride a bicycle at a safe distance from people. We can get groceries. (Please don’t oversupply — the vast majority of us will never be “self-isolated” and a real quarantine like in China is extremely unlikely.) Delivery services are still and are expected to remain intact, if a bit slow. (Plan ahead.) The US and EU supply chains and warehouse inventories are healthy and will remain so. (Britain will figure this out as well.) Just be patient and give restocking a chance to progress.

        By not giving in to excessive fears, but accepting as reasonable estimates official information, we can get through this outbreak and the two or three waves to follow with less personal and economic damages, here and all over the world.

        Thank all of you for trying to help get reliable information out to our Community here at Ask Woody. Be well and stay safe out there!

        -- rc primak

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      • #2212499 Reply
        OscarCP
        AskWoody Plus

        The US and EU supply chains and warehouse inventories are healthy and will remain so. (Britain will figure this out as well.) Just be patient and give restocking a chance to progress.

        This does not agree with my own experience: many items in an online shopping and home-delivery service I have been using for an unrelated problem and now I am continue to use to stay at home and avoid going out as much as possible, for example to the supermarket, has in its online pages many every-day items marked “out of stock”. Or if supposedly available, they may become marked as “0” items on the day of the delivery, with no substitutions, so I don’t get them. I am writing here about such things as: tooth paste, toilet paper, dish-cleaning detergent, oatmeal, spaghetti. Amazon has some of those available, but they are restricting the number one can buy to one or, at most, two items.

        I am getting impatient with the national, state and local governments, at least those that have jurisdiction where I live, not taking measures to stop this rampant hoarding of necessities by adopting strict rationing procedures, with very tough sentences for violators. This is entirely within the power of those now in government. If they are not prepared to use their powers, even for a limited time, to safeguard the availability of necessities to the population in the present emergency, then what are they doing up there?

         

        Windows 7 Professional, SP1, x64 Group W (ex B) & macOS + Linux (Mint)

      • #2212516 Reply
        anonymous
        Guest

        It has been a very WARM March in Florida- mid to upper 80’s or higher- doesn’t seem to be having an impact on it yet…..

         

        • #2212529 Reply
          Elly
          AskWoody MVP

          COVID-19 hasn’t been around long enough to know whether there will be a seasonal effect. Colds, and flu do, so it might… it would need to become endemic (established in the population), rather than spreading from person to person with no previous exposure, before such a tendency could really be established.

          Non-techy Win 10 Pro and Linux Mint experimenter

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      • #2212536 Reply
        anonymous
        Guest

        I had to give up on Instacart and Publix- same issues and far out delivery date. In order to cancel they say I have to call them! Over 100 min wait last 4 days. I deleted cc and address, sent an email(no response) We’ll see when middle of month comes if they try to charge monthly fee( glad I didn’t sign up yearly!) Amazon- 2 months ago purchased coffemate – 2 large containers- 13$…2 days ago $37!! Tonight 28$ Scope MW- $4 at Publix(pricy store) $17 at jeffs store!! Been amazon prime for 15 yrs. They cannot handle the rush  🙁

        Drifty

      • #2212597 Reply
        ibe98765
        AskWoody Plus

        And no, it’s not just the flu: 60,000,000 people don’t get put in quarantine for the flu, at least not in living memory.

        Which is exactly right and why the response to date has been far out or proportion to the damage done.  As I write this, there are 3,170 deaths from CV19.

        In the last full seasonal flu year, there were 34,200 deaths per the CDC:

        CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza (Table 1).
        https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

        We aren’t anywhere near that total yet, let alone the 100k-200k that is being brandied about by various government officials.  Oh sure, there will  be a surge of deaths.  Uh huh, right.

        Shutting down the economy out of unwarranted fear and hysteria is going to have a lot of repercussions.  There is almost no commerce at all.  Oil prices are down below $20/barrel.  Millions are unemployed.  This is not something that come May 1 now, that everyone is just going to return to work and normality will return in a month or two.

        This could be putting us into an actual economic depression that could take years to recover form, as it did with the last real depression after the 1929 stock market crash.  It was only WWII that got us out of 10+ years of economic problems.  The DJI may drop another 10k points.

        People have lost their savings, their retirements, their businesses.  Suicides will most certainly be up in 2020.  This is not a fun vacation at home people!

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      • #2212618 Reply
        Paul T
        AskWoody MVP

        why the response to date has been far out or proportion to the damage done

        Based on data from China, where they seem to have reduced new infections to a trickle, the death rate from COVID 19 is around 4%, but probably closer to half that accounting for undiagnosed cases. Assuming the same number of cases as seasonal flu (33.5 million) the death count would be 1.3 million, with over 13 million hospitalizations. We do not have that many beds in hospitals and couldn’t build them, so how would you treat those people?

        World leaders have not chosen to have an economic recession, there is no other solution.

        cheers, Paul

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      • #2212657 Reply
        anonymous
        Guest

        By the way CDC says that the FLU is now epidemic. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S2

        Quote

        Based on National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance data available on March 26, 2020, 7.4% of the deaths occurring during the week ending March 7, 2020 (week 11) were due to P&I. This percentage is above the epidemic threshold of 7.3% for week 11.

        End Quote

      • #2212676 Reply
        anonymous
        Guest

        Paul. Lets play the number game. Flu Numbers we know. As for covid-19 in theory 80% mild or minor, likely unreported. The real question is how many unreported cases because they might as well be as the person who has it thinks , just a case of a cold or flu. More numbers of 100 older or existing condition cases ONLY around 15 die 85 live. Guess what, those with the flu most likely to die are also in that group. Since covid-19 there has been an increase of flu cases. https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/03/13/Seasonal-flu-numbers-rise-CDC-says-likely-impacted-by-COVID-19-outbreak/8561584113214/

        As of March 31, World wide KNOWN 828,305 covid-19 cases with 40,735 Deaths and 174,454 Recoveries or about 20% recovery and %4 death.https://virusncov.com/

        But remember this is KNOWN cases. Remember that 80% of cases are mild or no symptoms. Just say to make the math simple the real Covid cases are 1 million. That changes the death rate to .04 Percent, a lot less the the .1 Percent FLU

        https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-80-percent-cases-are-mild-2020-2?op=1

         

        • #2213309 Reply
          Paul T
          AskWoody MVP

          Your article has a figure of 50% of cases reported, which I took into account.

          I hope you are right, but the figures to date don’t support you.

          cheers, Paul

      • #2212688 Reply
        OscarCP
        AskWoody Plus

        Anonymous Guest ( #2212657 ) Thanks for bringing in the information that the flu is now officially an epidemic in the USA. Lucky me, I am vaccinated. When it comes to COVID-19, not so much. I would also add here my own bit of information: it is starting to look like my chances of dying of the flu, if not vaccinated, are ten times less than of dying of COVID-19, which I find interesting.

        Windows 7 Professional, SP1, x64 Group W (ex B) & macOS + Linux (Mint)

      • #2212701 Reply
        DriftyDonN
        AskWoody Plus

        Paul, I don’t think there IS a treatment for this nasty yet. There is no treatment for the flu or the common cold either.(Influenza vaccinations are just a shot in the dark) So we just have to do what we can…symptoms like fever aches and pains, respiratory inflammation or infection are things we can attempt to ease but that’s about all. Sad to say but we simply do not have an emergency fund so to speak to dip into. Like most people, our political leaders are having to borrow to pay…..the pork they have approved smells really BAD.

        Be well, Stay well.

        BTW, Has anyone seen any real information about what is being done about the homeless situation in Cali or anywhere? 100 tents in Hillsborough county Fl is all I have heard. Can’t force treatment on these folks and they could be the well that is never emptied of the civid-19. 🙁

        • This reply was modified 3 days, 4 hours ago by DriftyDonN. Reason: additional question at large
        • #2213310 Reply
          Paul T
          AskWoody MVP

          Influenza vaccinations are just a shot in the dark

          They are based on science and testing and checking the data. Governments wouldn’t pay for them otherwise (flu jabs a free in many countries).

          cheers, Paul

      • #2212739 Reply
        OscarCP
        AskWoody Plus

        DriftDonN: In relation to your question about what is being done for homeless people in this COVID-19 emergency:

        San Francisco has always been a sort of Mecca for homeless people in the USA, particularly around the Tenderloin quarter.

        Here is an official statement from the SF municipal government on what is being done there. If I were homeless, I am not too sure I’ll find it entirely reassuring, but something is better than nothing, I suppose… Call for medical help? With an actual ‘phone’? OK… :

        https://sf.gov/information/covid-19-and-people-experiencing-homelessness

         

        Windows 7 Professional, SP1, x64 Group W (ex B) & macOS + Linux (Mint)

      • #2213346 Reply
        Dark.Storm
        AskWoody Plus

        Jesse Watters featured Dr. David Price of Weill Cornell Medical Center on “Watters’ World” Saturday, where the New York City doctor gave advice on how people can prevent spreading the coronavirus.

        This is how I summed up the Doctor’s Covid 19 Statement

        Covid 19 comes with 2  absolute guarantee’s

        1). If you touch your face, mouth, eyes, nose, you will get the virus.

        2). If you don’t touch your face you will not get Covid 19

      • #2213358 Reply
        wavy
        AskWoody Plus

        Why oh why am I in doubt of this as advice?? I am not saying your synopsis is in correct but look please at the source.

        🍻

        Just because you don't know where you are going doesn't mean any road will get you there.
        • #2213372 Reply
          b
          AskWoody Plus

          I watched the video. That doctor seems to be in a position to know what he’s talking about.

          Windows 10 Pro Version 2004: Group ASAP (chump/pioneer)

      • #2213457 Reply
        OscarCP
        AskWoody Plus

        If my own experience counts for anything, here it is: for well over a decade (since the vaccines became first generally available and then were included in Medicare) I have gone for my shots every single year around October. Except for one ‘jab’, courtesy of the UK’s NHS and one ‘Yobō sesshu,’ courtesy of the Japanese health service, because I was away from home to do some work in those countries at the time.

        And I have not had the flu, at least that I’ve noticed, in well over forty years. The last but one time was when I caught the Hong Kong, that caused a really bad pandemic and make my days pretty miserable.

        So I very much hope COVID-19 vaccines, once proven safe and effective, become quickly available and the practice of making them available every year, as the virus mutates much as the flu’s does, is also kept up.

        One other approach, a really old one, is serotherapy (or serum therapy), where blood plasma, carefully screened for harmful substances and microbes, of people (or certain large animals, such as horses) who have had the illness and recovered is used to immunize people who have not had it, or are starting to have it (as it helps make their illness less serious). I believe it is one of the possible ways, now under study, for tackling, short-term, this current pandemic. I understand that it was, until recently and perhaps still is, used in Russia to treat and also prevent the propagation of infectious diseases:

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antiserum

        It is a slower process, because the collected plasma has to be transfused from pouches or bottles into the recipients blood stream, an operation that takes up to half an hour. But any port in a storm.

        Windows 7 Professional, SP1, x64 Group W (ex B) & macOS + Linux (Mint)

      • #2213473 Reply
        OscarCP
        AskWoody Plus

        Unfortunately, touching one’s face is something we all do often and often without noticing. There are several explanations for this; my favorite one is that is a very ancient thing we have inherited from our primate ancestor in the tree of life.

        Washing one’s hands often helps to have them virus-free when touching, without even noticing, one’ s face. But there are some things we might do to reduce the chances of that happening, and improve our chances of not catching something nasty:

        http://theconversation.com/how-to-stop-touching-your-face-to-minimize-spread-of-coronavirus-and-other-germs-133683

        Windows 7 Professional, SP1, x64 Group W (ex B) & macOS + Linux (Mint)

      • #2213474 Reply
        woody
        Da Boss

        This from ibe98765  (I’m posting it because he’s having problems getting it posted…)

        Assuming the same number of cases as seasonal flu (33.5 million)

        Given that there are currently ONLY 176,518 CV19 cases in the USA, you have a huge way to go to get to 33 million!  And I doubt that we are going to get anywhere close in the current calendar year.  In fact, I would be willing to wager that we will not get anywhere close.

        As to China numbers, no one ever trusts China numbers on anything.  I thought this was common knowledge, but perhaps not among technical people.

        There are many voices that disagree with the government and health officials spreading of this fear and panic.

        For instance, David Katz is an MD who wrote an article in the NY Times about the economic impact of this scare that got roundly dissed because it went against the approved messaging.  Fareed Zakaria invited him onto last Sunday’s GPS show.  Watching this clip,  you can also listen to the voice of the mainstream media, NYT reporter Donald McNeil get visually worked up arguing against Katz’s argument.

        On GPS: Can we limit the economic cost of Covid-19?
        Fareed Zakaria, GPS
        29 Mar 2020

        Public Health specialist Dr. David Katz & NYT Health writer Donald McNeil discuss the President’s notion that the economy could be re-started promptly.
        https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/03/29/exp-gps-0329-c-blk-web.cnn

        • This reply was modified 2 days, 1 hour ago by woody.
      • #2213485 Reply
        OscarCP
        AskWoody Plus

        Dr. Katz, if the position he explains in the video is his real one and not a misleading way of walking back a previous argument that seem to have been pretty crassly concerned with the financial bottom line, at least if correctly described by the other participant in the four-persons panel whose scorchingly censorious opinions on Dr Ktz’s previous advice are included in the clip, Dr Katz modified ideas still leave something to be desired

        As Katz explains in the video, it would be a good idea to let those young, fit and in good health, go out and work to keep the economy going, because they are less likely to get a serious case of COVID-19 than those who are older, or much younger, gaining also immunity into the bargain and helping those also going out to work with them to get “herd immunity.” If so, then what happens when those with children and older relatives living with many of them in their houses, come back home? “Darling, I am back! And guess what I brought for you and everybody else here with me?.”

        Here is one of Dr. Katz opinion articles in the New York Time (when the page opens, a pop up at the bottom has a small arrow on the top right corner. Press on it and you’ll be able to read the whole article.)

        https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing.html

        Excerpt:

        This focus on a much smaller portion of the population would allow most of society to return to life as usual and perhaps prevent vast segments of the economy from collapsing. Healthy children could return to school and healthy adults go back to their jobs. Theaters and restaurants could reopen, though we might be wise to avoid very large social gatherings like stadium sporting events and concerts.

         

        Windows 7 Professional, SP1, x64 Group W (ex B) & macOS + Linux (Mint)

        1 user thanked author for this post.
      • #2213516 Reply
        anonymous
        Guest

        There’s a lot of bad information/speculation around here (and around the internet in general).

        COVID-19 is a much more serious threat than a typical flu (there are of course outliers like the Spanish flu).

        Some people are saying that the flu kills way more people, and then comparing a year’s worth of flu data to essentially a month’s worth of COVID-19 data (in the US). While also ignoring that the number of positive tests is still doubling every few days and nowhere near peaking yet. And that’s with many states keeping people at home. Not to mention an overall lack of testing being done, so the actual infected rate is likely much higher.

        COVID-19 is much more virulent than the flu. Partially because it’s new and we lack an effective vaccine for it (so we can’t have herd immunity yet like we can with the flu), and partially because the incubation period is so long. You generally become noticeably sick from the flu about 2 days after coming into contact with it. Some people are infected with COVID-19 for TWO WEEKS before realizing they are sick (the average period is 5 days, still more than twice as long as the flu). A significant number of people never have any symptoms at all but are still infected and contagious to others.

        Most importantly, though, COVID-19 has a high hospitalization rate. People with flu only have about a 1% rate of needing hospitalization. COVID-19 is looking like more like 12%, a massive difference. That’s a tremendous strain on healthcare services and vital equipment, especially if everyone is getting sick all at once. This is the biggest problem, and the reason they’re always talking about flattening the curve. Many more people than necessary will die if life saving equipment isn’t available when needed. Some people are left with permanent lung damage even after recovering from the virus.

        The fatality rate of COVID-19 seems to be much higher than flu as well, but it’s difficult to accurately say exactly how much higher at this point. It’s definitely much more dangerous the older you are, but young people are still getting very sick from this and needing hospitalization as well. Believe me when I say that you don’t want to ever end up on a ventilator if you can help it. It’s not a pleasant experience, and some people suffer PTSD from it.

        Please take it seriously, folks.

        4 users thanked author for this post.
        • #2214076 Reply
          anonymous
          Guest

          The reality is that viruses are everywhere and kill millions of people around the world each and every year. COVID-19 is nothing but another virus; and the hysteria around is causing more harm than doing any good. In fact, it’s more likely that more people will die by measures taken by governments and the hysteria driven by the media than by the virus itself. The rate of killings and suicides is on the rise; and it’s just the beginning. And liberty and justice is in harms way as well.

          1 user thanked author for this post.
      • #2213625 Reply
        ibe98765
        AskWoody Plus

        Here is an article that is about a week old now but seems to still apply, given that as I write this there are ONLY 5112 CV19 deaths so far, a far cry from last years flu deaths of 34,200 and orders of magnitude from the hysterical predictions of 100k to 250k deaths by MD’s Berx and Fauci all over the TV screens.

        Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
        Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.
        By Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya
        March 24, 2020

        If it’s true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.

        Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate—2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.

        …..

        https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464

        • This reply was modified 1 day, 15 hours ago by ibe98765.
      • #2213627 Reply
        ibe98765
        AskWoody Plus

        People may want to read this interesting Wired article about data modeling as it relates to the CV19 virus.

        The Mathematics of Predicting the Course of the Coronavirus
        Epidemiologists are using complex models to help policymakers get ahead of the Covid-19 pandemic. But the leap from equations to decisions is a long one.
        03.30.2020

        IN THE PAST few days, New York City’s hospitals have become unrecognizable. Thousands of patients sick with the novel coronavirus have swarmed into emergency rooms and intensive care units. From 3,000 miles away in Seattle, as Lisa Brandenburg watched the scenes unfold—isolation wards cobbled together in lobbies, nurses caring for Covid-19 patients in makeshift trash bag gowns, refrigerated mobile morgues idling on the street outside—she couldn’t stop herself from thinking: “That could be us.”

        https://www.wired.com/story/the-mathematics-of-predicting-the-course-of-the-coronavirus/

      • #2213628 Reply
        ibe98765
        AskWoody Plus

        Covid 19 comes with 2  absolute guarantee’s 1). If you touch your face, mouth, eyes, nose, you will get the virus. 2). If you don’t touch your face you will not get Covid 19

        Well, I have been touching my face regularly for the past few weeks and guess what?  I STILL do not have the virus.  Oh well.

      • #2213652 Reply
        woody
        Da Boss

        I’m posting this for @b, who’s also having trouble posting on this thread…

        Given that there are currently ONLY 176,518 CV19 cases in the USA

        It’s up by another 35,180 already. Now 211,698. [Up to 216,000 at this point. – WL]

        There are many voices that disagree with the government and health officials spreading of this fear and panic.

        I believe there are very few (and especially not experts).

        For instance, David Katz is an MD who wrote an article in the NY Times about the economic impact of this scare that got roundly dissed because it went against the approved messaging. Fareed Zakaria invited him onto last Sunday’s GPS show.  Watching this clip, you can also listen to the voice of the mainstream media, NYT reporter Donald McNeil get visually worked up arguing against Katz’s argument.

        On GPS: Can we limit the economic cost of Covid-19?

        Fareed Zakaria, GPS

        29 Mar 2020

        Public Health specialist Dr. David Katz and NYT Health writer Donald McNeil discuss the President’s notion that the economy could be re-started promptly.

        https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/03/29/exp-gps-0329-c-blk-web.cnn%5B/quote]

        In that video, David Katz walks back his article and says he doesn’t know whether we all need to be locked down for another 2, 3, 4, 6 or 8 weeks (before the young and healthy get back to work):

        “My position never supported what the president said. The idea of an arbitrary return to the world is dangerous nonsense and always was.”

      • #2214099 Reply
        ibe98765
        AskWoody Plus

        In that video, David Katz walks back his article and says he doesn’t know whether we all need to be locked down for another 2, 3, 4, 6 or 8 weeks (before the young and healthy get back to work): “My position never supported what the president said. The idea of an arbitrary return to the world is dangerous nonsense and always was.”

        That is the video I posted above.  You are taking one small statement out of context.  MD Katz, on the whole, stands by what we wrote in his NYT opinion.

        • #2214111 Reply
          b
          AskWoody Plus

          In that video, David Katz walks back his article and says he doesn’t know whether we all need to be locked down for another 2, 3, 4, 6 or 8 weeks (before the young and healthy get back to work): “My position never supported what the president said. The idea of an arbitrary return to the world is dangerous nonsense and always was.”

          That is the video I posted above.  You are taking one small statement out of context.  MD Katz, on the whole, stands by what we wrote in his NYT opinion.

          Yes, I had quoted you but couldn’t post in this thread just like you.

          No way is the Katz statement I posted either small or “out of context”.

          He ends with “But some arbitrary timeline, that was never anything I wrote about and I think that’s a huge mistake.”

          He merely suggests that, after 4, 6 or 8 weeks stay-at-home, the young and healthy return to work first.

          If you feel he supports your contention that “government and health officials are spreading fear and panic”, please be more specific about exactly what he said in relation to that.

          Windows 10 Pro Version 2004: Group ASAP (chump/pioneer)

      • #2214100 Reply
        ibe98765
        AskWoody Plus

        Maybe this will help open the eyes of some of the people as to how much damage this foolhardy CV19 response is doing to the economy.  It’s from a couple of days back, so the damage is probably worse today than when this was written.

        The State of the American Business
        Posted April 1, 2020 by Michael Batnick

        95% of all stocks in the S&P 500 are down year-to-date. The selling has been merciless, but it has not been indiscriminate. The market has done a good job reflecting what’s going on in the real economy.

        Energy has been the hardest hit sector, with the double whammy of the price war between the Russians and the Saudis coupled with the dried up demand.

        I wanted to look under the hood at different industry groups to see which areas have been hit the hardest.

        Exploration and Production (-76%) This number reflects the average change from the 52-week high for each group.

        These companies have $85 billion worth of debt maturing over the next four years. How much of this actually gets paid back?

        ….

        https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2020/04/01/the-state-of-the-american-business/

        • #2214113 Reply
          b
          AskWoody Plus

          We know it’s costly. Please justify “foolhardy”.

          Windows 10 Pro Version 2004: Group ASAP (chump/pioneer)

        • #2214130 Reply
          Kirsty
          Da Boss

          Maybe this will help open the eyes of some of the people as to how much damage this foolhardy CV19 response is doing to the economy.

          The potential for the death toll to rise exponentially is a reason for the current world-wide attempt to curb the spread of this nasty virus. To refer to that attempt as “foolhardy” is likely to cause offence to those who have been directly impacted by the numbers that make up the very personal element of the ever-rising death toll.

          Remember, there was a huge backlash online to suggestions the economy deserved a higher priority than a health crisis.

          Millions of people are successfully and productively working at home and maintaining public health at the same time. That is the real take home message that Dr. Fauci and many others are emphasizing. Public health risks need to be addressed with stringent public health measures; economic risks must be addressed with various economic measures. Mixing these risks and strategies will only result in worse public health outcomes (potentially a million lives lost) as well as worse economic outcomes, though those will be a bit further out, likely past November.

          From freep.com

          I hope we can all focus our discussion on helping, as I feel this is off-topic distraction, that is not helping anyone.

          1 user thanked author for this post.
      • #2214104 Reply
        OscarCP
        AskWoody Plus

        Regarding Katz’s comments under discussion: What has been happening in China, Italy, Spain, New York is not a joke. Does anybody have a good, detailed plan, Katz included, of what to do? No. Why not? Because this is an unprecedented situation in living memory. Are the measures adopted in some states in the USA and in some other countries too restrictive? Maybe. Are they appropriate? Maybe. If one wants black or white solutions for this very complicated situation, they are welcome to make up their own. I suggest formulating it as the question that is at the bottom of the current discussions within governments and in social media: risk people getting seriously ill and even die to save the economy: yes or no? My own position confronting the unknown but most likely dire situation out there: stay home unless it is essential to leave it (something I am in the fortunate position of being able to do), thorough hand washing, face included, ordering food and necessities online. Monitoring the “get a mask” situation, not having yet made my mind about that.

        And as to Katz allegedly not backing off from his previous comments: I don’t really care.

        Windows 7 Professional, SP1, x64 Group W (ex B) & macOS + Linux (Mint)

        1 user thanked author for this post.
      • #2214109 Reply
        ibe98765
        AskWoody Plus

        Some people are saying that the flu kills way more people, and then comparing a year’s worth of flu data to essentially a month’s worth of COVID-19 data (in the US). While also ignoring that the number of positive tests is still doubling every few days and nowhere near peaking yet. And that’s with many states keeping people at home. Not to mention an overall lack of testing being done, so the actual infected rate is likely much higher.

        Actually, the CDC has been tracking CV19 since 1/2/2020.  The first attributed death (as far as they are concerned) was on 1/12/2020.  So we are approaching 3 months of data so far.  We also don’t know if CV19 has a season, like the flu or not and how long to track it for.  It could peter out and be all over with by May.  We don’t know.

        Similarly, if you do want to stick by your “not enough data” contention, then you also cannot use that data to project cases or deaths going into the future.  You can’t have it both ways!

        Right now we are up to 6,803 deaths.  There is a LONG way to go to reach even the bottom rung of the 100k death number, let alone the 250k death number that Drs. Fauci and Birx continue to tout on TV.  When we don’t reach anywhere near those numbers, I will be looking for some public seppuku demonstrations!

        • #2214191 Reply
          anonymous
          Guest

          Actually, the CDC has been tracking CV19 since 1/2/2020.  The first attributed death (as far as they are concerned) was on 1/12/2020.  So we are approaching 3 months of data so far.  We also don’t know if CV19 has a season, like the flu or not and how long to track it for.  It could peter out and be all over with by May.  We don’t know.

          Similarly, if you do want to stick by your “not enough data” contention, then you also cannot use that data to project cases or deaths going into the future.  You can’t have it both ways!

          Right now we are up to 6,803 deaths.  There is a LONG way to go to reach even the bottom rung of the 100k death number, let alone the 250k death number that Drs. Fauci and Birx continue to tout on TV.  When we don’t reach anywhere near those numbers, I will be looking for some public seppuku demonstrations!

          I am the person you were responding to. When I said “essentially a month’s worth of data”, I was referring to the time it has become more widespread in the USA.

          Believe me, I hope you are right and we get nowhere near 100k deaths. What I don’t understand is how many people so stubbornly refuse to take this virus seriously, and downplay it every chance they get. Perhaps you are fortunate enough to live in a rural area that isn’t really seeing much of an impact from it, and so these precautions are simply annoyances to your day to day life. But in more dense areas, the hospitals are already reaching capacity while the rate of new cases (not just the number, but the RATE) is still growing larger every day. We’re seeing an exponential growth rate, as opposed to a linear growth rate, which is why the projections are so dire.

          And if we do manage to avoid hitting 100-250k deaths, it will be because we took action instead of downplaying it. Why is this so hard to accept for so many people?

          1 user thanked author for this post.
      • #2214110 Reply
        ibe98765
        AskWoody Plus

        There is humor even in maintaining “social separation”.

        6-Foot Zone
        https://m.xkcd.com/2286/

      • #2214187 Reply
        anonymous
        Guest

        I would like to inlighted people.

        The speed of transmission is an important difference between the two viruses. Influenza has a shorter incubation period (the time from infection to appearance of symptoms) and a shorter serial interval (the time between successive cases) than COVID-19 virus. The serial interval for COVID-19 virus is estimated to be 5-6 days, while for influenza virus, the serial interval is 3 days. This means that influenza can spread faster than COVID-19.

        Further, transmission in the first 3-5 days of illness, or potentially pre-symptomatic transmission –transmission of the virus before the appearance of symptoms – is a major driver of transmission for influenza. In contrast, while we are learning that there are people who can shed COVID-19 virus 24-48 hours prior to symptom onset, at present, this does not appear to be a major driver of transmission.

        The number of secondary infections generated from one infected individual – is understood to be between 2 and 2.5 for COVID-19 virus, higher than for influenza. However, estimates for both COVID-19 and influenza viruses are very context and time-specific, making direct comparisons more difficult.

        https://www.paho.org/en/news/25-3-2020-similarities-and-differences-covid-19-and-influenza

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